溜溜梅H股上市再受阻，对赌失败几成定局

Core Viewpoint - Liu Liu Guo Yuan's IPO process has been paused as its Hong Kong prospectus has expired after six months, raising concerns about its market position and operational challenges [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Liu Liu Guo Yuan primarily focuses on the research, production, and sales of specialty fruit snacks, particularly those made from green plums [3]. - The company has developed a diversified product matrix under the "Plum+" strategy, including dried plum snacks, western plum products, and plum jelly [3]. - As of 2024, Liu Liu Guo Yuan ranks first in the Chinese fruit snack industry with a market share of 4.9%, and it also leads in the natural jelly and plum product sectors with market shares of 45.7% and 7.0%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Liu Liu Guo Yuan has shown steady revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, with total revenues of 1.174 billion, 1.322 billion, and 1.616 billion RMB, respectively [4]. - The gross profit for the same years was 453 million, 530 million, and 581 million RMB, with net profits of 68 million, 99 million, and 148 million RMB [4]. - The company heavily relies on dried plum snacks, which contributed over 60% of its revenue in recent years, while plum jelly accounted for about 25% of total revenue in 2024 [4]. Group 3: Marketing and R&D Expenditure - Liu Liu Guo Yuan has significantly increased its sales and marketing expenses, totaling 902 million RMB over three years, which is much higher than its net profits [6]. - The company has invested relatively little in research and development, with expenditures of 23.7 million, 33.6 million, and 18.9 million RMB from 2022 to 2024, totaling less than 80 million RMB [7]. - The marketing strategy has included high-profile celebrity endorsements, which have contributed to brand recognition [5]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Liu Liu Guo Yuan faces significant pressure to complete its IPO by the end of 2025, or its controlling shareholder will have to buy back shares under specific agreements [2][12]. - The company has encountered numerous consumer complaints related to food safety, including issues with expired products and contamination [8]. - As of early 2025, Liu Liu Guo Yuan's cash reserves were critically low at 51 million RMB, while short-term debts amounted to 312 million RMB, indicating a cash flow crisis [11][13].