Tesla(US:TSLA) 智通财经网·2025-10-22 11:59Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock price has surged over the past year despite a significant decline in profit, with Q3 profit expected to drop by 25% year-over-year, highlighting a disconnect between market valuation and actual financial performance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Tesla is projected to report a 25% year-over-year decline in Q3 profit, continuing a trend of decreasing profits over several years [1]. - Analysts predict Tesla's Q4 delivery volume to be around 425,000 units, lower than the market consensus of approximately 448,000 units, indicating potential sales challenges [2]. - The consensus forecast for Tesla's earnings per share in 2025 has been revised down to $1.75 from $2.66 six months ago, with revenue expectations also decreasing by 12% [3]. Group 2: Market Valuation - Tesla's forward P/E ratio is projected at 195, significantly higher than the average of 33 for the "Tech Seven" giants, which include companies like Alphabet and Amazon [2]. - Tesla's market capitalization is approximately $1.5 trillion, contrasting sharply with traditional automakers like Ford and GM, which have single-digit P/E ratios [3]. - The valuation of Tesla is seen as disconnected from its current operations, as it remains primarily an automotive company while being valued like a tech firm focused on AI [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - Tesla's narrative has shifted from current performance to long-term innovation potential, focusing on autonomous driving and robotics, which may take years to generate significant revenue [1][2]. - The cancellation of federal incentives for electric vehicles poses a risk to Tesla's electric vehicle sales, which are crucial for funding its AI ambitions [2]. - The gap between Tesla's vision for future technology and its current execution capabilities will be critical in determining its future stock performance [4][5].