【大行报告】惠理基金：全球风险资产估值高位且现“FOMO”现象

Group 1: Market Overview - The Federal Reserve's restart of the rate-cutting cycle has provided strong upward momentum for global markets, particularly benefiting risk assets in the short term. However, most asset markets are now significantly overvalued, especially in AI-related stocks, with investors exhibiting a "Fear Of Missing Out" (FOMO) mentality rather than worrying about high valuations [1][3]. - For the Chinese stock market, a clear recovery in corporate earnings is necessary to sustain the upward momentum in both Hong Kong and A-shares [1][3]. - In other Asian markets, South Korea and Taiwan have seen recent gains driven by strong tech exports and AI product demand, but high valuations may lead to short-term consolidation [1][3][7]. Group 2: Fixed Income and Commodities - Asian credit spreads have narrowed significantly, limiting further price increases in bonds, while the attractiveness of high-yield bonds has also declined [2][10][11]. - Gold prices have surpassed the $4,000 level, supported by global political uncertainties and central banks increasing their gold reserves [2][13]. - The multi-asset strategy is viewed as a suitable option to navigate volatile market conditions, emphasizing stable income sources as key drivers of investment returns [2][15]. Group 3: Regional Stock Insights - In the Chinese A-share market, retail investor interest is rising, with a shift from bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions, although foreign institutional investors remain underweight in the Chinese market [5][6]. - The Japanese stock market is influenced by the new Prime Minister's expected continuation of loose monetary policies, but rising local bond yields may limit upward potential [9]. Group 4: Emerging Markets - Geopolitical uncertainties remain a primary risk factor for emerging markets, but strong commodity prices and expectations of Fed rate cuts provide some support [8][12].