9月结售汇顺差510亿美元，上中旬净结汇较多

Core Viewpoint - In September 2025, China's foreign exchange market showed a significant increase in both bank settlement and sales, with a surplus of 510 billion USD, indicating a robust and balanced foreign exchange environment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Bank Settlement and Sales Data - In September 2025, banks settled 18,809 billion RMB (approximately 2,647 billion USD) and sold 15,183 billion RMB (approximately 2,136 billion USD), resulting in a settlement surplus of 3,626 billion RMB (approximately 510 billion USD) [1]. - From January to September 2025, banks cumulatively settled 185,330 million USD and sold 179,010 million USD [1][2]. - The bank's foreign-related income in September was 48,409 billion RMB, while foreign payments were 48,629 billion RMB [1]. Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - In September, the total cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors reached 1.37 trillion USD, reflecting a 7% month-on-month increase [3]. - The net outflow of cross-border funds was 31 billion USD in September, which has since turned into a net inflow in October [3]. - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure for the first three quarters of the year reached 11.6 trillion USD, marking a historical high for the same period [3]. Group 3: Trade and Investment Trends - In September, China's total import and export value was 4.04 trillion RMB, with exports growing by 8.4% and imports by 7.5% year-on-year [4]. - The A-share market saw a total trading volume of 6.8 trillion RMB in September, indicating a significant increase and setting a new high [4]. - Experts predict that the upcoming peak in corporate financial settlements and profit distributions will likely lead to an increase in bank settlement volumes, potentially supporting the appreciation of the RMB [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable, with a balanced supply and demand situation, despite potential complexities from seasonal factors and policy adjustments [5]. - The shift from an export-driven economy to one focused on domestic demand may lead to a decrease in the contribution of trade surpluses to settlement and sales [5]. - The dual characteristics of cross-border investment are becoming more pronounced due to further financial market opening, which will complicate the dynamics of bank settlement and sales [5].