Ge Long Hui·2025-10-22 12:17Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is expected to report strong earnings growth for Q3 2025, driven by high trading activity and increased revenue from main fee categories, despite a decline in investment income due to margin pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Q3 2025 earnings are projected to increase by 49% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching HKD 46.8 billion [1]. - Total revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to rise by 40% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 75.3 billion, with main fee income increasing by 57% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 65.1 billion [1]. Group 2: Trading Activity - Trading activity remains robust, with Q3 average daily turnover (ADT) expected to rise by 141% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 2,864 billion [1]. - Southbound ADT is anticipated to increase by 285% year-on-year and 36% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 1,525 billion, accounting for 26.6% of Hong Kong stocks [1]. - Northbound ADT is projected to grow by 144% year-on-year and 77% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 2,687 billion, representing 7.1% of A-shares [1]. Group 3: Investment Income and Margin Pressure - Investment income for Q3 2025 is expected to decline by 18% year-on-year and 36% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 9.9 billion due to margin pressures [2]. - The narrowing of margin interest spreads is anticipated as long-term yields decline while short-term costs rise, alongside a decrease in derivative margin requirements due to lower market volatility [2]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The basic fundamentals of the market remain solid, with October ADT reaching HKD 2,880 billion, indicating sustained high trading activity [2]. - The potential for a rapid interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in Q4 could support liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [2]. - The company is advised to focus on the valuation adjustments following changes in risk appetite among investors [2]. Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 3% to HKD 171 billion, while the 2026 forecast remains unchanged [2]. - The current trading multiples are at 31x for both 2025 and 2026 earnings, with a target price maintained at HKD 500, indicating an 18% upside potential [2].