AI狂飙！巨头烧钱近千亿，2026美国经济是“支柱”还是“泡沫”？

Core Insights - The surge in AI investments by major tech companies in the U.S. has reached nearly $100 billion in just one quarter, doubling compared to three years ago, with firms like Meta and Microsoft planning to increase their investments further [4] - AI-related investments contributed a full percentage point to economic growth in the first half of the year, nearly matching the contribution from consumer spending [4] - The capital expenditures of companies heavily investing in AI account for nearly one-third of the S&P 500 index, with their stock prices increasing almost fourfold over the past year [6] Investment Dynamics - Despite the apparent growth, a significant portion of the AI investments involves importing high-tech equipment, which may dilute the actual economic impact domestically [8] - The increase in productivity attributed to AI is visible, but the current growth rate of 2.2% in labor productivity is still below the 3.1% seen during the internet boom of the 1990s [10] - AI investments have only increased GDP's share by 0.4 percentage points, compared to 1.4 percentage points during the last tech revolution, indicating that the full benefits of AI are yet to be realized [10] Market Comparisons - Current leading tech companies in AI show a healthier financial profile compared to the internet bubble era, with their market value growth aligning closely with profit increases [14] - The risk of overextending financial resources is present, as companies may face cash flow challenges due to high AI investments, potentially leading to increased borrowing [16] - The energy consumption of data centers is projected to rise significantly, which could pose a risk to AI operations if power infrastructure does not keep pace [16][20] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment, including anticipated interest rate cuts and government support, may bolster AI investments through 2026, but long-term success will depend on overcoming challenges like profitability and energy shortages [20][22] - The AI investment landscape is characterized as a marathon requiring endurance and intelligence, with potential disruptions from unforeseen events like geopolitical tensions or sudden economic shifts [22]