Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank has raised its forecast for Hong Kong's economic growth for the year to 2.8%, approaching the upper limit of the Hong Kong SAR government's prediction of 2% to 3% [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The bank revised its full-year economic growth forecast for Hong Kong from 2.2% to 2.8% [1] - Growth predictions for the third and fourth quarters have been increased to 3.2% and 1.8%, respectively, which is 1% higher than previous estimates [1] Business Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Business sentiment in Hong Kong improved in the third quarter, supported by stable export growth from July to August, ongoing retail sales recovery, active financial markets, and signs of stability in the property market [1] - These factors reflect a relatively stable external environment positively impacting economic growth [1] Trade Relations and Risks - Despite the resurgence of the US-China trade conflict in the fourth quarter, the bank believes the risk of retaliatory actions similar to those in April is low [1] - Ongoing dialogue between the two parties may extend the trade truce and lead to more agreements [1] Local Economic Challenges - The local economy faces risks from potential ongoing US-China trade tensions, diminishing export effects, and delayed impacts on the local labor market [1] - However, robust economic growth in mainland China, projected at 4.9% for the year, along with government support measures, may alleviate some adverse factors [1]
【环球财经】渣打上调香港全年经济增长预测至2.8%