AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA(SH:601288) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-10-22 13:16Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has shown strong performance, with Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) reaching a historical high in stock price and market capitalization, indicating a significant valuation recovery in the banking sector [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Bank of China Performance - On October 22, ABC's stock price closed at 8.09 yuan, marking a historical high and a total market capitalization of 2.75 trillion yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.06, breaking the long-standing "below book value" situation of state-owned banks [1][2]. - ABC has experienced a "14 consecutive days of gains" trend, with a year-to-date increase of 51.05%, significantly outperforming Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), which has a year-to-date increase of 12.14% [2]. - The stock's strong performance is attributed to high dividend yields from quality assets and stable earnings, which provide solid support for the stock price [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Valuation Recovery - The recovery in the banking sector's valuation is driven by three main factors: sustained inflow of long-term capital, stabilization of fundamentals, and a shift in market style [4]. - Long-term capital inflows, particularly from insurance companies, asset management companies (AMCs), and industrial capital, have provided robust purchasing power for bank stocks [4][5]. - The fundamental recovery is reflected in improved revenue growth and profitability forecasts for listed banks, with expected revenue growth of 1% and profit growth of 1.5% for the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Investor Sentiment - The market's perception of bank stocks has shifted, with a historical tendency to undervalue banks at a price-to-book ratio below 1, now being reassessed due to the banks' operational resilience and compounding effects [3]. - The recent increase in global risk aversion, particularly following U.S. trade policy announcements, has led to a defensive shift towards bank stocks, which are characterized by low valuations and high dividends [6]. - Analysts suggest that the banking sector is entering a bottoming phase, with expectations of a more certain investment window in the fourth quarter and early next year, despite ongoing uncertainties in performance and external environments [7].