或创四年新低，油价为何一再下调？专家解读

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in oil prices is attributed to multiple factors in both international and domestic markets, leading to expected reductions in gasoline and diesel prices in China [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of October 21, the oil price change rate has dropped to -7.93%, with anticipated reductions of 320 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a decrease of 0.24 to 0.27 yuan per liter [1]. - Following the price adjustments, the average price of 92-octane gasoline is expected to fall from 7.04 yuan per liter to a range of 6.77 to 6.80 yuan per liter [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is currently experiencing a surplus, with OPEC+ increasing production and major oil-exporting countries maintaining high export levels, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance [3][4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently downgraded its forecasts for global oil demand growth, reflecting a more conservative outlook due to anticipated economic slowdowns [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Iran, their impact on oil prices has diminished as market supply has increased, leading to a return to fundamental pricing [5][7]. - The end of the peak oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere has raised concerns about future demand, with expectations of a decline in global oil demand by 500,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter [7].