Netflix Tumbles After Q3 Earnings Miss. Is This Your Chance to Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Netflix's shares fell nearly 9% after the third-quarter earnings report, despite a 17% year-over-year revenue increase to $9.8 billion, which met expectations. However, earnings per share of $5.87 missed the consensus estimate of $5.95 due to a one-time $360 million charge related to a Brazilian tax dispute [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 17% year-over-year to $9.8 billion, aligning with management's guidance and Wall Street expectations [1]. - Earnings per share of $5.87 fell short of the consensus estimate of $5.95, primarily due to a non-recurring $360 million charge [1][2]. Management Insights - Management indicated that the $360 million charge is non-recurring and should not impact long-term performance [2]. - The company will not meet its full-year operating margin target of 30%, but it remains on track for strong profitability growth [2]. Advertising Revenue - Ad revenue, now a key growth driver, reached record levels and is expected to double by 2025, although specific figures were not disclosed [3]. - An analyst suggested that management's comments hinted at a potential doubling of ad revenue in 2026, but executives did not confirm this and stated more details would be provided in Q4 [3]. Market Reaction - The stock was trading at a high valuation of 52x forward earnings, which required flawless execution, leading to a sharp market reaction following the earnings miss [4]. - Netflix's stock reached an all-time high of $134.1 billion per share in late September but has since been trading between $115 billion and $120 billion [5]. Competitive Landscape - Netflix is priced like a hypergrowth tech company, despite subscriber growth plateauing in developed markets and increasing competition from Disney, Amazon, Warner Bros. Discovery, and YouTube [6]. - Password-sharing crackdowns and price hikes have limited incremental gains, making ad revenue the primary growth lever [6]. User Engagement and Ad Strategy - The ad tier now has over 94 million monthly active users, up from 70 million six months ago, with U.S. engagement averaging 41 hours per month, comparable to linear TV [8]. - The company has fully integrated its ad tech stack for precise targeting and format innovation, with pause ads currently in testing for potential global rollout by year-end [8].