AbbVie Up More Than 30% in 6 Months: How to Play the Stock

Core Insights - AbbVie (ABBV) stock has increased by 30.7% over the past six months, outperforming the industry (8.9%), sector, and S&P 500 index [1][7]. Stock Performance - The stock has been trading above its 50 and 200-day moving averages since July [2]. - AbbVie has successfully navigated the loss of exclusivity of its blockbuster drug, Humira, by launching new immunology medicines, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are driving growth [8][10]. Drug Performance - Skyrizi and Rinvoq generated combined sales of $11.6 billion in the first half of 2025, with annualizing sales expected to reach almost $18 billion for Skyrizi and over $8 billion for Rinvoq [10][11]. - AbbVie anticipates combined sales of Skyrizi and Rinvoq to exceed $25 billion in 2025 and $31 billion by 2027, driven by strong market growth and new indications [11]. Oncology and Neuroscience Contributions - AbbVie's oncology segment generated revenues of $3.3 billion in the first half of 2025, up 4.2% year over year, supported by new drugs like Elahere and Epkinly [13]. - Sales of AbbVie's neuroscience drugs increased by 20.3% to nearly $5 billion in the first half of 2025, driven by products like Botox Therapeutic and Vraylar [14]. Acquisition Strategy - AbbVie has executed over 30 M&A transactions since early 2024 to enhance its early-stage pipeline, including the acquisition of Gilgamesh Pharmaceuticals [15]. Challenges - Humira's sales have declined over 50% in the first half of 2025 due to biosimilar erosion, with expectations of continued decline [17]. - Sales of Juvederm fillers have decreased by 22.2% in the first half of 2025 due to macroeconomic challenges and weakened consumer sentiment [18]. Valuation and Estimates - AbbVie shares currently trade at a price/earnings ratio of 16.72, higher than the industry average of 15.64 [19]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has decreased from $12.03 to $11.12 per share, while the estimate for 2026 has slightly increased [22]. Future Outlook - AbbVie is expected to return to mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by the performance of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, with no significant loss of exclusivity events anticipated for the rest of the decade [25].