黄金“断崖”暴跌 牛市结束尚早

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced a significant drop, with gold and silver prices plummeting dramatically, raising concerns about the end of the bull market and investor strategies in response to this volatility [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On October 21, gold prices saw a maximum drop of 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, while silver prices fell by 8.7%, the largest drop since 2021 [3][4]. - On October 22, gold prices reached a low of $4002.89 per ounce, and silver prices fell to $47.48 per ounce, indicating continued downward pressure [1][3]. Causes of the Decline - The easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict, has reduced the demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets, triggering the price drop [4][5]. - Prior to the decline, gold had increased by over 65% in 2023, leading to profit-taking and a buildup of selling pressure as investors sought to realize gains [4][5]. - The strengthening of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields have diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts are divided on whether this decline represents a short-term adjustment or a more significant trend reversal. Historical patterns suggest that major bull markets are often driven by inflation or financial crises [6][7]. - Despite the recent downturn, long-term structural factors supporting gold prices, such as geopolitical risks and high US debt levels, remain intact [6][7]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold may find support around $4000 per ounce, with potential for further fluctuations as the market stabilizes [7][8]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to assess their risk tolerance and consider strategies such as buying on dips for those with higher risk appetites, while conservative investors may prefer to hold their positions and wait for market stabilization [9][10]. - It is recommended that long-term investors avoid high-leverage products and consider stable investment options like gold bars, paper gold, or gold ETFs [9][10].