依然对黄金新高充满信心

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices mask a fundamental restructuring of long-term pricing logic in the market [1] Group 1: Recent Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a significant rise in Q1 due to strong expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, reaching a historical high of $3,390 per ounce in late April [2] - Following this peak, gold prices entered a period of volatility, with a dramatic drop occurring on October 21, where prices fell over 5% in a single day, dropping below $4,100 [5] - The market's reaction shifted from euphoria to panic, attributed to profit-taking by speculative investors and easing tensions in the Middle East [5][6] Group 2: Underlying Drivers of Gold Prices - The current bull market in gold is driven by a fundamental shift in the perception of sovereign credit, particularly regarding the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency [6] - Central banks globally have been purchasing gold at unprecedented levels since 2024, with the proportion of gold in global foreign exchange reserves rising from under 25% at the end of 2024 to over 30% by Q3 2025 [7] - Countries like China, Poland, Turkey, and Singapore are leading a strategic move away from dollar-denominated assets towards gold [7][8] Group 3: Implications of Geopolitical Events - The freezing of Russia's overseas assets post-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the risks of relying solely on U.S. debt and the dollar system for national reserves [8] - This has initiated a global shift from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold, reinforcing the underlying logic of the current bull market [8] Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold - The recent price drop is viewed as a healthy technical correction, allowing long-term value investors to enter the market at more favorable positions [9] - Despite concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy and the dollar, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of new highs driven by ongoing geopolitical and monetary shifts [10][16]