中美现在最大的一个共识，可能就是不要爆发系统性的危机，以现在的全球化程度而言，如果再发生类似于1929年那样的世纪大萧条

Economic Overview - The global economic growth rate for this year is approximately 3.1%, which is one percentage point lower than the pre-pandemic average [3] - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $34 trillion, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates above 5% [3] - Germany's GDP declined by 0.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, while inflation in France remains high [3] Debt and Financial Stability - Global debt has reached 330% of GDP, significantly higher than the 150% ratio during the 1929 crisis, indicating a precarious financial situation [3] - The 2008 financial crisis was mitigated by aggressive monetary policy, but this has led to a larger global debt bubble that now affects all countries [5] Income Inequality - There is a growing disparity between developed and developing countries, with the wealthiest 10% holding over 76% of global wealth, while the bottom half of the population receives less than 2% [5] - In the U.S., the top 1% has seen their income nearly quadruple over the past 30 years, while the bottom 50% has experienced stagnant real wages [5] Trust and Systemic Risks - The erosion of trust in economic systems is evident in political conflicts in the U.S. and social unrest in Europe, signaling a struggle for resource distribution [7] - The current U.S.-China relationship is characterized by a race against time, with both nations trying to maintain stability to avoid global repercussions [7] Long-term Economic Outlook - The current stability in the global economy is described as "false stability," with past reliance on globalization, low interest rates, and technology bubbles no longer sustainable [9] - The IMF's statement about entering a "new era of long-term low growth" highlights structural issues rather than cyclical ones [10]