全球石油供应过剩或导致加纳油价下行

Core Insights - The global oil market is experiencing a significant shift due to oversupply and the strengthening of the Ghanaian cedi, leading to potential decreases in fuel prices in Ghana [1][2] - The global oil tanker fleet has accumulated over 1 billion barrels of crude oil, with a daily oversupply of approximately 1.9 million barrels since early 2025, and prices hovering around $70 per barrel [1] - The Ghana Oil Marketing Companies Association anticipates a reduction in gasoline prices by about 4.15%, diesel by 2% to 4%, and liquefied gas by 4.46% starting from October 16 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global oil production increased by 5.6 million barrels year-on-year in September, with OPEC+ contributing 3.1 million barrels due to the lifting of production cuts by the G7, and production recovery in Libya, Venezuela, and Nigeria [1] - Global demand remains weak, with an average growth of only 750,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, significantly below historical levels, and this low demand is expected to persist [1] Factors Influencing Fuel Prices in Ghana - Ghana's fuel prices are influenced by international oil prices, exchange rates, and taxes, with some marketing companies potentially delaying price reductions due to earlier cost increases [2] - The volatility of the cedi creates uncertainty in import costs, and any depreciation of the currency could negate the benefits of falling oil prices [2] - The management of exchange rates by the Bank of Ghana is seen as crucial for maintaining fuel price stability [2]