Goldman Basket Shows Painful Month for Shorts Caught in Squeeze

Core Insights - The US stock market is experiencing a recovery from recent selloffs, primarily driven by short-sellers covering their positions, indicating a potential market squeeze [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Goldman Sachs' basket of the most-shorted stocks has increased by 16% this month, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which only advanced by 0.7% [2]. - The S&P 500 has shown remarkable resilience, achieving one of its best performance streaks since the 1950s, despite ongoing uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing trend of investors covering their short positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for October 29, which may create a misleading sense of confidence in the market [3]. - Risk aversion is rising as traders are now selling upside calls to fund downside protection, reflecting a shift in sentiment as the market rallies [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - There is a prevailing belief that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon, but some analysts caution that the actual impact of such reductions may be overestimated [6]. - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen below the key level of 20, indicating reduced market volatility after a brief spike, suggesting a stabilization in investor sentiment [7].