Intel Q3 Preview: Nvidia, US Government Stakes Don't Change Narrative – 'Do Not Believe Valuation Is Justified'

Core Viewpoint - Intel Corporation is preparing for its third-quarter financial report, with expectations of a revenue decline compared to the previous year, while analysts predict a slight improvement in earnings per share [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts forecast Intel's Q3 revenue to be $13.14 billion, down from $13.28 billion in the same quarter last year [1]. - The expected earnings per share for Q3 is 1 cent, a significant recovery from a loss of 46 cents per share a year ago [2]. - Intel's guidance for Q3 revenue ranges from $12.6 billion to $13.6 billion, with a projected loss of 24 cents per share [3]. Analyst Insights - Intel has exceeded revenue estimates for four consecutive quarters and has beaten earnings estimates in seven of the last ten quarters overall [2]. - Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson suggests that Intel could show operational improvements and better guidance, maintaining a Neutral rating while raising the price target from $19 to $20 [4][5]. - Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya downgraded Intel from Neutral to Underperform, citing market share losses to competitors and limited AI integration, with a price target of $34 [7]. Key Items to Watch - The prediction market indicates a strong belief (76%) that Intel will beat earnings per share estimates for Q3 [4]. - Analysts expect discussions around recent product announcements, including the Crescent Island GPU, which aims to enhance Intel's position in the AI chip market [9]. - Intel's Panther Lake processors are anticipated to begin shipping later this year, targeting growth in AI, gaming, and edge solutions sectors [10]. Price Action - Intel's stock has decreased by 3.5% to $36.78, with a year-to-date increase of 82.0% [10].