以日为鉴

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of increased bank deposits in China, with a total increase of 12.73 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, and a significant surge of 2.96 trillion yuan in September alone, reversing a previous downward trend [1] - It draws parallels between the current low-interest environment in China and Japan's "lost decades," suggesting that despite low returns, individuals prefer to hold cash and deposits due to a lack of confidence in riskier assets [2][17] - The article highlights the performance of Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which has seen substantial growth since its historical low in 2009, driven by the Bank of Japan's aggressive ETF purchasing strategy [5][9] Group 1: Bank Deposits and Economic Behavior - In the first three quarters, individuals increased their bank deposits by 12.73 trillion yuan, with a notable rise of 2.96 trillion yuan in September, indicating a shift in savings behavior [1] - The current interest rates for bank deposits are very low, with savings accounts yielding between 0.05% and 0.2%, and fixed-term deposits around 1% [1] - This situation mirrors Japan's experience during its prolonged low-interest period, where citizens opted for cash and deposits due to a lack of investment confidence [2][17] Group 2: Japanese Market Insights - The Nikkei 225 index has shown remarkable recovery, rising from a low of 7,054 points in March 2009 to 48,580.44 points in October 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 10% for those who invested in related ETFs [2][5] - The Bank of Japan's unique approach of purchasing ETFs has played a crucial role in stabilizing and boosting the stock market, with the central bank's holdings now representing about 7% of the total market capitalization [5][9] - Japan's economic recovery has been characterized by a shift from growth to returns, with significant contributions from export-oriented companies benefiting from a weaker yen [9][11] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Comparisons - The article suggests that Chinese investors could learn from Japan's experience by considering investments in domestic ETFs, particularly in the context of low-interest rates [4][23] - The structure of the Chinese stock market, particularly the CSI 300 index, reflects a similar evolution as Japan's, with a focus on financial, real estate, and emerging technology sectors [23][25] - The Chinese ETF market has surpassed Japan's, indicating a growing acceptance and potential for further investment in index funds among retail investors [31]