财经观察：东南亚两轮车“油改电”，日企叫苦

Core Viewpoint - The Southeast Asian two-wheeler market is undergoing a significant shift towards electric vehicles, challenging the dominance of traditional Japanese motorcycle manufacturers, as local and Chinese manufacturers seize the opportunity presented by the transition from gasoline to electric [1][2][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Vietnam has the highest per capita motorcycle ownership globally, with a market value of $4.6 billion [2][3]. - The Vietnamese government plans to ban gasoline motorcycles in urban areas by 2026 and aims for over 20% of motorcycles to be electric by 2030 [2][3]. - Honda holds approximately 80% of the Vietnamese motorcycle market, with sales of 2.6 million units last year [3][8]. Group 2: Japanese Manufacturers' Concerns - Japanese manufacturers, including Honda and Yamaha, are concerned that the rapid electrification timeline may lead to job losses and disrupt the market [2][5]. - Honda reported a year-on-year decline in motorcycle sales of 0.2% for the first half of 2025, with a significant drop in automotive sales by 52.8% [8][10]. - The Japanese embassy in Vietnam has urged the government to consider a more gradual transition to electric vehicles [5][8]. Group 3: Local and Chinese Manufacturers' Strategies - Local manufacturers like VinFast and Dat Bike are capitalizing on the electric motorcycle market, with VinFast accounting for over 55% of electric motorcycle sales in Vietnam [11][12]. - Dat Bike has secured $22 million in funding to expand its operations and plans to enter the Thai market by the end of the year [11][12]. - Chinese manufacturers are also increasing their presence, with Yadea establishing a factory in Thailand and aiming for significant production capacity [12][13]. Group 4: Future Trends - The transition to electric motorcycles is seen as an irreversible trend, with local manufacturers and Chinese companies poised to lead the market [11][13]. - The Vietnamese market is expected to see a surge in electric motorcycle sales, with a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025 [11]. - The overall Southeast Asian market is projected to shift towards electric vehicles, driven by government policies and consumer demand [10][12].