21专访丨荷宝全球股票联席总监Michiel Plakman：全球供应链重构将是未来十年重大主题

Group 1: China Market Outlook - The company holds an optimistic view on China's economic prospects, driven by government support for large tech platforms and a focus on technological self-sufficiency, which is expected to spark a new wave of innovation across the tech value chain, including semiconductors and artificial intelligence [1][14] - The current rebound in the Chinese stock market is attributed to three key drivers: supportive policies, reduced dependency on the U.S., and improvements in the fundamental economic outlook [14] - The restructuring of global supply chains is anticipated to be a major theme over the next decade, as countries reassess their relationships with major powers, including the U.S. [16] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have seen significant increases, with a notable rise from $3,700 to approximately $4,380 in October, attracting widespread attention from international investors [1][4] - Despite potential short-term adjustments in gold prices, the long-term outlook remains positive, as gold continues to serve as a reliable store of value amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [5][6] - A recommended allocation of around 5% of an investment portfolio to gold is considered reasonable, with suggestions to maintain this level unless already at 10%, in which case profit-taking may be advisable [2][6] Group 3: U.S. Economic Analysis - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a consumption-driven model to an investment-driven one, supported by the AI boom and manufacturing reshoring, although low-end consumer spending remains a concern [10][11] - Concerns about the credit market are highlighted, particularly regarding private credit's lack of transparency, which could pose risks, while the overall health of U.S. stock valuations is viewed as stable [11][13] - The anticipated economic growth rate for the U.S. is projected to decline to around 1.7% or 1.8% by the end of 2025, indicating a slowdown but not a recession [10][11] Group 4: Investment Themes and Strategies - The company emphasizes the importance of identifying key assets that will be critical over the next decade, particularly in sectors like technology, biotechnology, and domestic manufacturing in China [19] - The potential for significant investment opportunities exists in undervalued sectors within China, particularly in technology and healthcare, as the country seeks to build internal capabilities and reduce reliance on external powers [19] - The ongoing evolution of the cryptocurrency market, particularly the regulatory framework for stablecoins, is noted as a significant development, although cryptocurrencies are not yet seen as core assets for investment portfolios [17]