PTA短期有望见底

Group 1 - PTA prices have been declining since September, falling below 4400 yuan/ton due to decreasing crude oil prices and strong inventory accumulation expectations [1] - The geopolitical situation, including unresolved issues between Russia and Ukraine, continues to provide support for crude oil prices, which may lead to a rebound after significant declines [2] - The PTA industry is currently experiencing low processing fees, with a spot processing fee of 122 yuan/ton as of October 21, indicating a loss situation [3] Group 2 - There are signs of improvement in domestic demand as the winter clothing business enters a peak season, with strong demand for knitted and plush products [4] - Polyester production and sales are gradually increasing, with the processing fees for most polyester products improving significantly, while the inventory pressure remains manageable [4] - If new rounds of Sino-US trade negotiations yield positive signals, it could lead to strong external demand replenishment [4] Group 3 - Overall analysis suggests that PTA prices are likely to find a bottom in the short term due to the support from crude oil price recovery, limited supply growth, and improving domestic demand [5] - The combination of these factors is expected to support a strengthening of PTA prices and a recovery in processing fees [5]