SAP SE：Q3云业务未达预期，盘后股价一度跌4%

Core Insights - SAP SE reported its Q3 2025 financial results, with cloud business revenue falling short of analyst expectations, leading to a post-market stock decline of 4% [1] - The company faced challenges from trade disputes and a sluggish sales environment, impacting overall performance [1] Financial Performance - IFRS operating profit increased by 12% to €2.49 billion, with a profit margin rise of 1.3 percentage points [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit rose by 14% to €2.57 billion, a 19% increase at constant currency, with a profit margin increase of 1.8 percentage points [1] - Basic earnings per share (IFRS) grew by 37% to €1.72, while non-IFRS earnings per share increased by 29% to €1.59, exceeding expectations [1] - Operating cash flow for Q3 increased by 7% to €1.5 billion, and free cash flow rose by 5% to €1.27 billion [1] Cloud Business Performance - Backlog orders for the cloud business increased by 23% to €18.84 billion, with a 27% increase at constant currency [1] - Cloud revenue grew by 22% to €5.29 billion, also a 27% increase at constant currency, but fell short of expectations [1] - Software licensing revenue dropped by 43% to €160 million, a 42% decrease at constant currency [1] - Total revenue from cloud and software increased by 8% to €8.02 billion, with a 12% increase at constant currency [1] - Service revenue rose by 2% to €1.06 billion, a 6% increase at constant currency, contributing to an overall revenue increase of 7% to €9.08 billion, which is an 11% increase at constant currency [1] - Cloud business gross profit increased by 24% to €3.95 billion (IFRS) and €3.97 billion (non-IFRS), with a 28% increase at constant currency [1] Future Guidance - For the full year 2025, cloud business revenue is expected to be at the lower end of the forecast range, between €21.6 billion and €21.9 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 26% to 28% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected to be at the upper end of the forecast range, between €10.3 billion and €10.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 26% to 30% [1] - Free cash flow is anticipated to be between €8 billion and €8.2 billion [1] - Cloud and software revenue is expected to be between €33.1 billion and €33.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11% to 13% [1] Market Context - SAP's stock has underperformed recently, with its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) declining approximately 9% over the past three months [1] - Following the earnings report, the stock experienced a post-market drop of about 4%, which later narrowed [1] - The company had previously been positioned to challenge the "Big Seven" in the U.S., with its stock tripling over the past three years and contributing significantly to the Frankfurt DAX index's gains last year [1] - Investors are particularly focused on the progress of SAP's cloud business, with management previously warning about the impacts of trade wars and a weak dollar on customer decision-making [1]