豆油继续偏弱震荡

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic oilseed futures have shown a weak oscillating trend since October, with soybean oil futures maintaining a range of 8200 to 8400 yuan/ton due to policy expectations [1] - The domestic supply of soybean oil is relatively ample, with inventory at a medium to high level, which suppresses the upward price potential [1] - International soybean oil prices remain firm, and the slowdown in domestic oil mill crushing pace provides some support for soybean oil prices [1] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Export Challenges - The U.S. government shutdown and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions have weakened the influence of U.S. soybeans in the global pricing system, leading to a reduced impact on China's imported soybean costs [2] - From October to December, China is expected to maintain zero purchases of U.S. soybeans, relying on imports from Brazil and Argentina to fill the supply gap [2] - The decoupling of U.S. soybean pricing from Chinese imports is evident, with the pricing model now dominated by Brazilian soybean premiums and the exchange rate of the yuan [2] Group 3: Weather Predictions and Production Estimates - The U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 71% probability of La Niña weather from October to December, which may increase drought risks in major soybean-producing regions like Brazil and Argentina [3] - The Rosario Grain Exchange predicts Argentina's soybean production for the 2025/2026 season to be 47 million tons, lower than the USDA's previous estimate of 48.5 million tons [3] Group 4: Supply Adequacy - Prior to the National Day holiday, domestic purchases of Argentine soybeans increased due to a temporary cancellation of export taxes, covering the supply gap for the first quarter of next year [4] - In September, Argentina announced a reduction of the soybean export tax from 26% to zero, prompting Chinese buyers to secure at least 130,000 tons of soybean orders within a few days [4] - China's soybean imports in September reached 12.87 million tons, with imports from Brazil at 10.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, while no U.S. soybeans were imported for the first time since November 2018 [4] Group 5: Current Market Dynamics - The oilseed market currently lacks a clear direction, with stable supply and limited news impact, resulting in oscillating futures prices [5] - The recent procurement of Argentine soybeans is sufficient to meet the first-quarter demand, thus limiting the impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations on soybean prices [5] - The soybean oil market remains unchanged, with oil mills operating normally and inventory pressures persisting, leading to a lack of significant price drivers [5]