供强需弱 LPG偏空格局持续

Core Viewpoint - The LPG market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to its strong correlation with crude oil prices, seasonal variations, and recent tariff issues affecting price dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - LPG is a terminal product and chemical raw material used in producing polypropylene and gasoline blending products, with its price closely tied to crude oil [1] - The price ratio between LPG and crude oil has seen substantial volatility, reaching a near five-year high in April [1] - The U.S. is the largest source of LPG imports for China, accounting for approximately 50% of total imports, followed by countries in the Middle East [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - China's LPG imports are diversifying, with a notable decrease in propane imports from the U.S. to the lowest level since 2021 [1] - Domestic LPG demand is primarily driven by chemical needs, particularly from propane dehydrogenation (PDH) processes, with potential benefits for alternative production methods if PDH feedstock is restricted [1] - Current supply pressures are indicated by the October CP (Saudi LPG contract price) opening lower than expected, suggesting a significant supply burden [3] Group 3: Cost Factors - The current weak trend in crude oil prices contrasts sharply with the performance of precious and base metals, influenced by factors such as the rise of new energy vehicles and ongoing trade tensions [2] - LNG prices are currently lower than LPG prices, with an expanding price gap accelerating LNG's market penetration [2] - Shipping costs for LPG are relatively low, with favorable conditions in key transit areas like the Panama Canal [2] Group 4: Inventory and Utilization - Port inventory levels are at mid-range historical levels, while refinery inventory rates are near multi-year lows, indicating a mixed supply situation [3] - The overall chemical industry is facing profitability challenges, with declining margins in PDH and related products, contributing to a bearish outlook for LPG prices [3]