东南亚两轮车“油改电”，日企叫苦

Core Insights - The Southeast Asian two-wheeler market is undergoing a significant shift towards electric vehicles (EVs), challenging the dominance of Japanese motorcycle manufacturers [1][2][10] - Vietnam's government has announced plans to restrict gasoline-powered motorcycles, aiming for a substantial transition to electric models by 2030, which has raised concerns among Japanese companies about job losses and market disruption [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Vietnam has the highest per capita motorcycle ownership globally, with a market value of approximately $4.6 billion [2] - The Vietnamese government plans to ban gasoline motorcycles from certain areas starting July 2026, with a goal of having over 20% of motorcycles powered by electricity by 2030 [2][3] - Japanese companies, particularly Honda, hold a dominant market share of about 80% in Vietnam, with Honda selling 2.6 million units last year [3][4] Group 2: Japanese Companies' Response - Japanese manufacturers, including Honda and Yamaha, are urging the Vietnamese government to reconsider the rapid timeline for electrification, citing potential job losses and supply chain disruptions [4][5] - Honda reported a decline in motorcycle sales by 11.4% year-on-year in September, indicating a shift in consumer behavior due to the impending ban on gasoline motorcycles [7][8] - The Japanese embassy in Vietnam has expressed concerns that the ban could negatively impact dealers and parts suppliers, urging for a more gradual transition [4][5] Group 3: Local and Chinese Competitors - Local Vietnamese manufacturers like VinFast and Dat Bike are capitalizing on the shift to electric motorcycles, with VinFast capturing over 55% of the electric motorcycle market [10][11] - Chinese manufacturers are also increasing their presence in the Southeast Asian market, with companies like Yadea expanding production capabilities and sales networks [11][12] - The competition is intensifying as local and Chinese firms leverage their understanding of consumer preferences and government policies to gain market share [12][13]