Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-23 00:28Core Insights - Tesla reported a 12% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, reaching approximately $28.1 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of around $26.3 billion [1] - However, Tesla's earnings per share of approximately $0.50 fell short of the expected $0.54, marking a significant year-over-year decline of 31% [1][2] - The company experienced a notable increase in free cash flow, reaching nearly $4 billion, a 46% increase compared to the previous year, significantly above the expected $1.25 billion [1] Revenue and Profitability - Tesla's automotive business revenue grew by about 6% year-over-year, from $20 billion to $21.2 billion [2] - Operating expenses surged by 50% to $3.4 billion, influenced by rising costs in the U.S. automotive industry and an estimated $400 million impact from U.S. tariff policies [2] - Net profit under GAAP decreased by 37% to $1.37 billion, with earnings per share at $0.39, down from $2.17 billion and $0.62 per share in the same period last year [2] Market Dynamics - Tesla's Q3 saw a record high in vehicle deliveries at 497,099 units, with total production at 447,450 units, although deliveries for the first three quarters were down about 6% year-over-year [4] - The decline in regulatory credit revenue by 44% to $417 million reflects ongoing challenges in the European market, exacerbated by competition from companies like Volkswagen and BYD [4] - The expiration of federal tax credits for electric vehicles led to a surge in consumer purchases, pulling some sales forward into Q3 [2] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - Tesla's energy business revenue jumped 44% to $3.42 billion, driven by large-scale battery storage systems and solar products [5] - The company is focusing on the development of its full self-driving (FSD) system, with only 12% of its current fleet subscribed to FSD services [10] - Plans for mass production of the Optimus humanoid robot and Cybercab autonomous taxi service are set for 2026, with expectations for significant advancements in AI and robotics [10][16] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts express caution regarding Tesla's growth narrative, with concerns about profitability and market positioning amid rising operational costs and competitive pressures [7][13] - Some analysts maintain a bullish outlook, emphasizing the potential of Tesla's AI and robotics initiatives to drive future growth, with target prices significantly higher based on long-term projections [14][15]