Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-23 00:31Core Insights - Tesla reported a 12% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, reaching approximately $28.1 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of around $26.3 billion [1] - However, the company's earnings per share of approximately $0.50 fell short of the expected $0.54, marking a significant 31% decline compared to the previous year [1][3] - Tesla's free cash flow saw a notable increase, reaching nearly $4 billion, a 46% rise year-over-year, significantly surpassing the average analyst expectation of about $1.25 billion [1] Revenue and Profitability - The automotive business revenue grew about 6% year-over-year, from $20 billion to $21.2 billion [3] - GAAP net profit decreased by 37% to $1.37 billion, with GAAP earnings per share at $0.39, down from $2.17 billion and $0.62 per share in the same quarter last year [3] - Operating expenses surged by 50% to $3.4 billion, influenced by rising costs in the U.S. automotive industry and an estimated $400 million impact from U.S. tariff policies [2] Market Dynamics - Tesla's automotive regulatory credits revenue unexpectedly dropped by 44%, from $739 million to $417 million [4] - The company achieved a record high in vehicle deliveries, with 497,099 cars delivered in Q3, although total deliveries for the first three quarters were approximately 1.2 million, down about 6% year-over-year [4] - The launch of more affordable versions of the Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan aimed to make products more accessible following the expiration of federal EV tax credits [4] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - Tesla's energy business revenue surged by 44% to $3.42 billion, driven by large backup battery storage systems and solar products [5] - The company is focusing on the development of its full self-driving (FSD) system, with only 12% of its current fleet subscribed to FSD services [7] - Plans for mass production of the Cybercab and Megapack 3 are set for 2026, with expectations for the first-generation Optimus robot to be showcased in Q1 [7][12] Investor Sentiment - Analysts express concerns over Tesla's growth narrative, particularly regarding the slow progress of its AI-driven FSD system [7][10] - Despite recent stock price fluctuations, some analysts maintain a bullish outlook, citing Tesla's potential in AI and robotics as key growth drivers [10][11] - The company is seen as a leading investment in the physical AI sector, with expectations for significant advancements in autonomous driving and robotics [11]