温氏股份(300498)三季报点评：畜禽成本具领先优势 Q3肉鸡业务盈利5亿

Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion yuan, with a total revenue of 75.788 billion yuan for the first nine months, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year [1] - The company's net profit for the first three quarters was 5.26 billion yuan, down 18.3% year-on-year, with quarterly revenues showing fluctuations: Q1 at 24.32 billion yuan (+11.3%), Q2 at 25.53 billion yuan (+2.6%), and Q3 at 25.94 billion yuan (-9.8%) [1] - As of September 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 49.4%, down 1.2 percentage points from June, with a target to reduce it to around 45% [1] Livestock Production - The company achieved a pig output of 27.668 million heads from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, with a target of 33-35 million heads for the year [2] - Quarterly pig output was reported as 8.594 million heads in Q1, 9.338 million in Q2, and 9.736 million in Q3, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 19.7%, 29.8%, and 35.4% [2] - The estimated profit from the pig farming business for Q3 2025 is approximately 1.5 billion yuan, contributing to a total profit of about 6.6 billion yuan for the first nine months [2] Poultry Production - The company reported a total output of 948 million yellow feathered chickens from January to September 2025, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, with a quarterly output of 282 million in Q1, 316 million in Q2, and 350 million in Q3 [3] - The estimated profit from the chicken business for Q3 2025 is around 500 million yuan, despite a total loss of approximately 700 million yuan for the first nine months [3] - The company aims for a year-on-year growth of over 5% in chicken output for 2025 [3] Market Outlook - The company anticipates a significant reduction in pig production due to regulatory policies, with a projected output of 35 million heads in 2025, remaining stable in 2026, and a slight increase in 2027 [4] - The expected profit for the company is forecasted to be 6.735 billion yuan in 2025, with a notable increase to 10.85 billion yuan in 2026 and 13.945 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The company maintains its position as the second-largest pig farming enterprise and the largest yellow feathered chicken producer in the country, with competitive cost management [4]