黄金测试4000美元支撑，上涨暂歇还是行情终结？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a significant market correction following a speculative surge, with the price nearing $4,000 per ounce before stabilizing around $4,100 [2][4][6]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a sharp drop of nearly $300, or 5.7%, marking the largest single-day percentage decline since June 2013, following a record high [4]. - The strong performance of the US dollar has added pressure on gold prices, with investors closely monitoring the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4][5]. Investment Strategies - A popular trading strategy for 2025 involves using gold as a hedge against dollar depreciation, driven by concerns over rising government debt and fiscal deficits [4]. - However, doubts are emerging regarding gold's effectiveness in this role, as some analysts argue that the rationale for "currency devaluation trades" is weakening [5]. Historical Context - Gold has seen a continuous rise for nine weeks, a pattern that has historically occurred only four times since the 1970s, with no instances of ten consecutive weeks of increases [6]. - Current gold prices are significantly above the 200-week moving average, indicating potential overextension and the need for a market correction [6]. Market Sentiment - Despite the recent pullback, many market participants believe the current bull market for gold may not be over, viewing the recent decline as a temporary adjustment rather than a trend reversal [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that profit-taking and reduced defensive sentiment have contributed to the recent sell-off, but the overall bullish trend remains intact [7]. Fundamental Support - The World Gold Council highlights that despite perceptions of high prices, gold's value remains relatively low compared to global stock markets, suggesting further growth potential [7]. - Strong fundamentals, including geopolitical uncertainties and increasing US money supply, continue to support the gold market, indicating that it has not yet reached saturation [7].