黄金9周连涨后历史复盘：未来一年通常回调20%-40%，仅1970年例外

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping 6.3% and marking the largest single-day drop in 12 years, is attributed to various factors including rumors surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, easing trade relations, and the reopening of the U.S. government. Despite this short-term volatility, the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact [1][14]. Market Structure - The current gold price increase is fundamentally different from earlier trends this year, as central banks have not participated in the recent rally since September. The rise has been primarily driven by investment and speculative traders, leading to a more fragile market structure [2][3]. - The absence of central bank buying power has resulted in a significant increase in ETF sizes, which are characterized by rapid inflows and outflows, contributing to heightened market volatility [2]. Technical Indicators - Technical analysis indicates that the recent gold price surge reached a critical threshold, with the price touching three times the standard deviation upper limit, suggesting a natural correction is due [4]. - A notable warning signal is the sharp rise in implied volatility of gold ETFs, which historically indicates potential turning points and exhaustion of trends [6]. Historical Context - Historical data shows that after a nine-week consecutive rise in gold prices, the typical adjustment range is between 20% to 40%, with maximum declines occurring between 23 to 148 trading days post-peak. This suggests that investors should prepare for potential prolonged adjustments [9][12]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term adjustment pressures, the long-term bullish rationale for gold remains robust, supported by the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and structural supply-demand imbalances [14].