成品油需求萎缩 炼化利润承压

Group 1: Industry Overview - The research conducted by Huishang Futures focused on the current state of the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain in Shandong, particularly regarding the supply and demand dynamics of benzene and styrene [1] - The overall market for refined oil products is facing significant challenges, with diesel consumption declining due to the acceleration of electric vehicle adoption and cautious sales behavior from gas stations [3][13] - The competition among local refineries is intensifying, especially with the commissioning of the Yulong Petrochemical integrated project, which is expected to further exacerbate market conditions [3][13] Group 2: Company Insights - The local refinery in Dongying primarily produces gasoline, diesel, and various petrochemical products, with gasoline and diesel being the largest output [2] - The refinery's daily production of pure benzene is approximately 100 tons, with a storage capacity of about 3000 tons, indicating a relatively strong risk tolerance in a declining market [4] - The refinery in Linzi has a daily production capacity of pure benzene between 120 to 200 tons, positioning it as a medium-sized player in the Shandong pure benzene market [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 57.8% in September 2025, contributing to the pressure on traditional fuel demand [3] - The current market environment for refined oil is characterized by a downward price trend, with expectations for further price reductions in November [3][4] - The EPS producer, which consumes 200,000 tons of styrene annually, is experiencing a shift in demand structure, with emerging sectors like aquaculture showing slight growth despite overall EPS consumption growth slowing down [10][12] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall trend for Shandong's local refineries is moving towards high-end and refined production, although the new capacity from Yulong Petrochemical may increase market competition in the short term [13] - The EPS producer is actively managing its raw material costs through futures market participation, indicating a strategic approach to mitigate price volatility [12]