张尧浠：金价跌幅收窄仍待调整、多头蓄力预下月再爆发

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to experience a period of adjustment and potential upward movement in the coming month, with current market conditions indicating a possible recovery after recent declines [1][5][6]. Price Movement Summary - On October 22, gold opened at $4124.66 per ounce, reached a low of $4004.11, and then rebounded to a high of $4161.10 before closing at $4098.24, resulting in a daily decline of $26.42 or 0.64% [1][3]. - The price volatility for the day was $156.99, indicating significant market fluctuations [1]. Market Influences - Investor profit-taking ahead of key U.S. inflation data and optimism regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations contributed to downward pressure on gold prices, which found support near the $4000 mark [3]. - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown concerns and geopolitical tensions have created a mixed market environment, leading to cautious investor behavior [3][6]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that gold prices will remain in a range-bound adjustment phase, with a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points anticipated on October 30 [5][6]. - If the government shutdown is resolved before the rate decision, gold prices may stabilize and begin to recover by November [5]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly chart, gold prices are currently facing resistance near the upper Bollinger Band and may test support levels around $3945 [7]. - Weekly analysis indicates potential further declines towards $3800, but any drop could present a buying opportunity due to nearby support levels [8]. - Daily charts show a bullish reversal pattern, suggesting a possible rebound, although prices remain below the 5-10 day moving averages, indicating prevailing bearish sentiment [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4040 and $3940, while resistance levels are at $4166 and $4220 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $47.30 and $46.60, with resistance at $49.00 and $49.80 [10].