“日本国债风暴”将再度席卷市场? 欧洲资管巨头押注30年期收益率将上破3.5%

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising regarding Japan's new Prime Minister's potential increase in borrowing, which may lead to a surge in long-term Japanese government bond yields, possibly triggering a repeat of the "Japanese bond sell-off storm" that previously impacted global financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - The new Prime Minister, high市早苗, is expected to revive "Abenomics," focusing on aggressive fiscal stimulus and a cautious stance on monetary tightening, which has led to significant market volatility [2][3]. - The "Sanae trade" reflects market expectations of stronger fiscal stimulus and mild monetary policy, resulting in a rapid rise in Japanese stock prices and a depreciation of the yen [2][3]. Group 2: Bond Yield Predictions - Claire Huang from Amundi predicts that the 30-year Japanese government bond yield could exceed 3.5%, representing an increase of nearly 40 basis points from recent trading levels [1][2]. - The 30-year bond yield recently reached 3.345%, the highest since its issuance in 1999, indicating a trend of poor performance for Japanese long-term bonds this year [2][3]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The potential for rising inflation and the unclear specifics of high市's economic measures may deter investors from returning to long-term Japanese bonds until more clarity is provided [3]. - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is projected to face upward risks, potentially reaching 1.8%, as the Bank of Japan gradually reduces its bond holdings under the yield curve control policy [4]. Group 4: Global Context and Currency Implications - The "term premium" phenomenon, where investors demand higher yields for holding long-term bonds, is becoming more pronounced, particularly in the U.S. bond market, which may influence Japanese bond yields [4][5]. - The depreciation of the yen, which has fallen approximately 2.5% recently, could strengthen the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, as higher import costs contribute to domestic inflation pressures [5].