Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-23 02:19Core Viewpoint - Domestic bank stocks are experiencing a continued upward trend, with Morgan Stanley's latest report indicating that the banking sector is set to complete a natural cycle bottom in Q3 without large-scale stimulus policies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Postal Savings Bank (601658) increased by 3.3%, trading at HKD 5.63 - Agricultural Bank (601288) rose by 2.05%, trading at HKD 5.97 - Industrial and Commercial Bank (601398) gained 1.34%, trading at HKD 6.04 - Bank of China (601988) saw a 1.15% increase, trading at HKD 4.41 [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Morgan Stanley noted that the rebound in M1 growth and improvement in industrial profits occurred without significant stimulus, marking a first for the Chinese financial system [1] - The upcoming dividend distributions in Q4, stable interest rates, and support from RMB 500 billion structural financial policy tools are expected to bolster bank stock revaluation [1] Group 3: Earnings Outlook - Everbright Securities highlighted the resilience of bank operating performance, predicting stable revenue growth and slight improvement in profit growth for the first three quarters [1] - The "high dividend, low valuation" characteristics of the banking sector have become more pronounced, with Hong Kong-listed banks showing a relative pricing advantage [1] - Increased risk aversion due to US-China tensions is enhancing the defensive appeal of bank stocks, attracting continued investment from insurance, AMC, and industrial capital [1]