“金九银十”，寂静的旺季

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" losing its vibrancy, reflecting a deeper stagnation in the market [1][2]. Market Conditions - Last year's National Day holiday saw a brief recovery in the real estate market due to policy stimuli, with cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen experiencing a surge in demand. However, this year's holiday marked one of the worst performances in nearly a decade, with developers resorting to various promotions to attract buyers, yet the market remains subdued [2][3]. - The shift in policy focus from stimulating transactions to stabilizing expectations and preventing risks has altered public perception of the real estate market. The investment appeal of housing is diminishing, leading to a mindset of "buying on the decline" rather than "buying on the rise" [3][4]. Housing Supply and Demand - The supply of existing homes is now exceeding demand, with a projected 30% decline in housing demand over the next decade. The urban housing vacancy rate has reached 16.2%, equating to approximately 390 million vacant urban homes [3][4]. - The commercial real estate sector is also facing challenges, with a significant increase in the supply of Grade A office buildings leading to high vacancy rates in major cities: Shanghai at 24.6%, Guangzhou at 23.8%, and Shenzhen at 26.5% [4]. Price Trends - National statistics indicate a decline in housing prices across major cities, with first-tier cities experiencing a 1.0% month-on-month decrease in August. The average price drop from the peak in 2021 exceeds 30% [4][6]. - The cautious sentiment among potential buyers is evident, as many are waiting for prices to drop further, leading to a pervasive expectation of future price declines [7][8]. Developer Challenges - Developers are facing significant financial pressures, with companies like Vanke reporting a liquidity crisis. As of mid-2025, Vanke's current liabilities reached 641.1 billion yuan, with short-term debts of 157.9 billion yuan, raising concerns about their ability to deliver homes [8][9]. - The risk of delivery failures is becoming a major concern for buyers, overshadowing price considerations. The ongoing credit crisis among private developers has heightened fears regarding the ability to complete projects [8][9]. Policy Responses - Recent government meetings have emphasized the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market. Major cities are beginning to relax purchase restrictions, with Beijing and Shanghai implementing policies to stimulate demand [9][10]. - The market is undergoing a transition from speculative investment to a more rational assessment of value, suggesting a potential return to stability in the long term [10][11]. Future Outlook - The current market conditions require patience as the industry seeks to find a new equilibrium. Historical precedents suggest that real estate markets can recover after prolonged downturns, indicating that the current adjustment may not be the end but rather a necessary phase [11][12].