帮主郑重：金价这轮会跌多久？咱从根上捋明白

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to a technical correction rather than a fundamental market reversal, with short-term indicators showing an "overbought" condition after a significant price increase [3] Market Dynamics - The gold price experienced a significant drop of 2.9% in a single day, marking the worst decline in 12 years, leading to concerns among investors about the future of gold [1][3] - The market had previously seen a surge of over $1,000 in gold prices over six weeks, prompting a necessary correction [3] Price Forecast - The current adjustment is expected to last 1 to 2 months, with a potential price decline of 10% to 15% [3] - Key support levels are identified at $3,900 to $3,904 per ounce, with a critical Fibonacci retracement level; a drop below this could lead to further declines towards $3,760 [3] Central Bank Activity - Central banks continue to purchase gold, driven by concerns over U.S. debt credit and geopolitical risks, indicating a long-term strategy to diversify reserves [4] - China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months, reflecting a strong commitment to gold accumulation [4] Market Liquidity - The ongoing "liquidity feast" in the market is pushing gold prices, with an expectation of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could enhance gold's attractiveness [4] Structural Demand - There is a structural increase in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to underlying risks in private credit and U.S. debt issuance, which are seen as potential threats [4] Investment Strategy - Short-term investors are advised against rushing to buy during this volatility, waiting for clear stabilization signals [5] - Mid-term strategies suggest entering positions if gold prices fall to the $3,800 to $3,900 range, with a focus on gradual accumulation [5] - Long-term investment should allocate 5% to 15% of the overall asset portfolio to gold, favoring gold ETFs and physical gold investments without leverage [5]