外汇商品 | 以劳动生产率视角预测主要货币对走势

Core Insights - The article discusses the relationship between labor productivity, the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and exchange rates, using real GDP per capita as a measure of labor productivity to assess currency valuation and future exchange rate trends [1][2][3]. Group 1: Balassa-Samuelson Effect and Real Effective Exchange Rates - The Balassa-Samuelson effect indicates that "lagging" economies experience a continuous appreciation of their real effective exchange rates as they catch up to "developed" economies [1][3]. - From 2005 to 2015, the real effective exchange rate of the Chinese yuan appreciated, supporting the notion of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, with predictions of further appreciation in 2025 and 2026 based on OECD forecasts [1][4]. - A comparison of 15 economies' labor productivity data for 2024 reveals that the Indonesian rupiah, Swiss franc, and South African rand are overvalued by over 20%, while the Korean won, Japanese yen, and Canadian dollar are undervalued by over 20% [6][9]. Group 2: Future Exchange Rate Predictions - The analysis predicts that in the next year, the US dollar will appreciate slightly against the euro and pound, weaken against the yuan initially, and then strengthen, while it will weaken against the yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Korean won [2][10]. - The euro and pound are expected to weaken moderately against the yuan, while the yen, Korean won, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar may rebound against the yuan after short-term pressure [2][23]. - The analysis suggests that the yuan is slightly overvalued by 3.45% relative to labor productivity, indicating that the appreciation of the yuan in 2025 and 2026 may be limited [6][9]. Group 3: Labor Productivity and Currency Valuation - The article emphasizes that the Balassa-Samuelson effect provides a theoretical framework linking labor productivity to real exchange rates, which is crucial for medium to long-term exchange rate assessments [4][10]. - The analysis of labor productivity and actual effective exchange rates shows that the yuan's valuation is close to equilibrium, with slight overvaluation, while other currencies like the Canadian dollar and Japanese yen show significant undervaluation [6][9]. - The relationship between labor productivity and bilateral exchange rates indicates that the yuan may face appreciation pressures in the coming years, particularly against currencies like the euro and pound [23][24].