4个月翻了10倍！“市场预测龙头”Polymarket寻求以150亿美元估值进行融资

Core Insights - The blockchain prediction market is experiencing explosive valuation growth, with Polymarket seeking to raise funds at a valuation of $12 billion to $15 billion, a more than tenfold increase from four months ago [1][2] - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced an investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket at an approximate valuation of $8 billion, excluding new funds [2] - Kalshi, a major competitor, is also seeing a surge in valuation, exceeding $10 billion, reflecting strong investor confidence in the prediction market sector [2][4] Valuation Surge - Polymarket's valuation trajectory is remarkable, rising from $1 billion in June after a funding round led by Founders Fund to a target of $12 billion to $15 billion within four months [2] - The recent ICE deal is a key milestone in this valuation leap, providing both funding and traditional financial market endorsement [2] - Kalshi's valuation has also skyrocketed, doubling to over $10 billion shortly after raising $185 million at a $2 billion valuation in June [2] Trading Volume Increase - Both Polymarket and Kalshi have seen a significant increase in trading volume, surpassing $2 billion in the week ending October 19, marking a new high [3] Wall Street and Sports Betting Involvement - The soaring valuations highlight strong market interest in this rapidly growing sector, particularly as gambling and financial markets converge [4] - Wall Street firms and sports betting giants are forming partnerships with leading prediction market companies, anticipating potential industry disruptions [4] - Polymarket is set to act as a clearinghouse for DraftKings as it enters the prediction market space [4] Sports Industry Engagement - The NHL has announced a multi-year partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket, becoming the first major U.S. sports league to collaborate with these platforms [5] - The sports sector is emerging as a significant growth driver for prediction markets, with Kalshi previously partnering with Robinhood to offer prediction contracts for NFL and college football events [5] - Kalshi's trading volume reached $875 million in August, while Polymarket's monthly trading volume hit $1 billion [5] Regulatory Uncertainty - Despite soaring valuations, the prediction market faces significant regulatory uncertainties [6] - The CFTC has allowed Kalshi to open new markets, but state gambling regulators have raised objections in court [6] - Polymarket's regulatory path has been complex, having previously settled with the CFTC over operating an unregistered derivatives exchange, but has since made strides to re-enter the U.S. market [6]