KVB PRIME：美国9月CPI数据即将公布，或成美元四季度走势关键

Group 1 - The US dollar has shown a strong start in the foreign exchange market, supported by risk aversion due to the government shutdown and heightened attention on the upcoming September CPI data [1][2] - The government shutdown has led to a "data vacuum," increasing the appeal of the US dollar as a traditional global safe-haven asset, resulting in sustained buying support [2][6] - The September CPI data, set to be released soon, is crucial as it is one of the first significant data points post-shutdown and provides insight into the true inflation situation [4] Group 2 - Economists predict a year-on-year increase of 3.1% in the September CPI, which would be the highest level since May 2024, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's policy path in 2026 [4][6] - There is an asymmetry in the market's response to the CPI data; if the data meets or falls below expectations, the dollar may only see minor fluctuations, but a higher-than-expected figure could drive the dollar significantly higher [6][8] - Recent Canadian inflation data exceeding expectations has raised caution among traders, suggesting that US inflation may also remain resilient [6] Group 3 - Despite a cumulative decline of about 7% in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index for 2025, most of the losses occurred in the first half of the year, with the dollar showing resilience in the latter half [7] - The options market indicates optimism, with traders favoring the purchase of bullish dollar options, reflecting a belief that the dollar will continue to strengthen in the next three months [7] - There is a growing perspective that the market may be underestimating the dollar's rebound potential, as the relative strength of the US economy could limit the Fed's rate-cutting capacity [8]