Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-23 03:23Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the stock price of China National Pharmaceutical Group (01099) will rise within the next 30 days, with a probability of 70% to 80%, and has given it an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 22.5 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Two subsidiaries of China National Pharmaceutical Group have reported third-quarter results showing a positive trend quarter-on-quarter, which is expected to have a beneficial effect on the group [1] - China National Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600511.SH), a major distributor in Beijing and a key supplier of anesthetics, reported a year-on-year revenue and profit increase of 4% and 13% respectively in the third quarter, indicating a positive turnaround [1] - China National Pharmaceutical Group's southern distribution network and Guoda Pharmacy chain, represented by China National Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (000028.SZ), saw a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit of 2% and 10% respectively in the third quarter, but the company noted that its distribution business has "stabilized and is recovering growth" [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The pharmaceutical distributor sector is currently not receiving much market attention due to weak domestic demand and the impact of technology licensing activities in China, which is expected to persist into 2025 [1] - The current valuation of China National Pharmaceutical Group is considered a good entry point, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 6.5 times for 2026 [1]