Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-10-23 03:26Core Viewpoint - The election of Japan's first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is expected to drive a bullish sentiment among Wall Street investment firms, with Morgan Stanley and Citigroup predicting an expansion in Japanese stock market valuations and a continuation of the bull market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Takaichi's government will enhance Japanese stock market valuations through growth strategies, corporate governance reforms, and improved ESG ratings [1][2]. - Citigroup maintains its forecast that the TOPIX index will reach 3,400 points by December 2025 and 3,500 points by March 2026, while the Nikkei 225 index is expected to hit 51,000 points and 52,500 points in the same timeframe [1][6]. Group 2: Growth Strategies - Morgan Stanley highlights that if the government implements growth strategies and reforms corporate governance, the expected growth rate for companies could increase by 0.5 percentage points, leading to a potential doubling of the expected price-to-earnings ratio for the Nikkei and TOPIX indices [2][3]. - The growth initiatives proposed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party are expected to enhance corporate profit growth and expand price-to-earnings ratios through fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, deregulation, and innovation support [2][3]. Group 3: Corporate Governance Reforms - Takaichi's emphasis on corporate governance reform includes potential taxation on retained earnings and mandatory disclosure of their usage, aligning with the Financial Services Agency and Tokyo Stock Exchange's push for better capital cost and stock price management [2][3]. Group 4: ESG and Foreign Investment - Morgan Stanley notes that Takaichi's appointment is likely to improve Japan's ESG ratings, potentially reducing the ESG risk premium and attracting foreign investors back to Japanese stocks as a signal of commitment to governance reforms [3]. - The seasonal trend of foreign investors favoring large-cap, high-liquidity stocks is expected to be amplified with Takaichi's leadership, especially during the mid-October earnings season [3]. Group 5: Political Stability and Policy Implementation - Citigroup emphasizes that despite the ruling coalition not having a majority in both houses, support from smaller conservative parties and independents will facilitate smoother policy implementation under Takaichi's government [4][5]. - The new government is expected to focus on tax relief for households facing declining real incomes, investment in growth sectors to enhance productivity, and establishing a stable cycle of wages and prices [5][6].