Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced a significant downturn on October 21, with gold and silver prices plummeting after reaching historical highs, indicating a sharp correction in the market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold fell over 6% in a single day, dropping $232 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, with futures settling at $4,109.10 per ounce after hitting a peak of $4,381 [1][4]. - Silver saw an even steeper decline, with spot prices dropping 7.6% to $48.49 per ounce, and hitting a low of $47.85, marking the largest single-day drop since 2021 [3][4]. - Domestic markets mirrored this trend, with Shanghai gold futures dropping nearly 6% and Au99.99 contracts falling over 5% [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The decline was triggered by multiple negative factors, including a decrease in risk aversion following a joint statement from European leaders supporting a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which reduced gold's safe-haven premium [4][5]. - The U.S. government's potential resolution of the "shutdown crisis" and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. further suppressed market demand for safe-haven assets [4]. - Profit-taking by investors contributed to the sell-off, as gold and silver had seen substantial gains earlier in the year, with gold up over 57% and silver over 67% [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The sell-off quickly affected capital markets, with significant declines in gold and silver mining stocks, including Harmony Gold and AngloGold, both dropping over 10% [6]. - In contrast, some leading domestic stocks like Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold saw significant trading volumes, indicating a divergence in market sentiment between institutional and retail investors [6]. - Retail gold prices in physical markets, such as those from Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Tai Fook, actually increased by 2%-2.5%, highlighting a difference in expectations between physical consumption and financial investment [6]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Despite the sharp decline, many analysts believe this adjustment is a temporary correction within a strong market trend, with the underlying bullish factors for gold remaining intact [7]. - Continued central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and high sovereign debt levels are expected to support gold prices in the long term [7]. - HSBC has set a target price of $5,000 per ounce for gold by 2026, emphasizing ongoing central bank purchases and monetary easing as key drivers [7]. Group 5: Short-term Outlook - Analysts predict a volatile short-term outlook for gold and silver, with expectations of limited downside for gold but greater fluctuations for silver [8]. - Citibank has shifted its short-term view to bearish, forecasting gold prices to stabilize around $4,000 per ounce in the next 2-3 weeks [8].
黄金白银单日暴跌创多年纪录 分析人士：强势行情中的阶段性修正
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-23 03:30