铜价2~3年有望呈螺旋式上行趋势

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is undergoing significant changes driven by the dual forces of global energy transition and the AI technology revolution, leading to a structural shift in demand while supply faces constraints, suggesting a potential upward trend in copper prices over the next 2-3 years [1][10]. Demand Structure Changes - Traditional sectors such as construction, which once accounted for over 30% of global copper consumption, are experiencing a decline due to demographic changes and urbanization saturation, particularly in China where the share is expected to drop from over 30% to around 18% by 2030 [3][4]. - Emerging sectors like renewable energy and digital infrastructure are creating strong new demand for copper, with significant increases expected in solar and wind energy applications [5][6]. Supply Constraints - The global copper supply is facing challenges such as declining ore grades, insufficient investment in new projects, and operational disruptions in major mines like Indonesia's Grasberg, which could lead to a supply loss of approximately 30,000 tons by 2026 [8][9]. - The average ore grade has decreased from over 1.0% a decade ago to around 0.7%-0.8% currently, increasing extraction costs and limiting production [8]. Price and Profit Outlook - The copper market is expected to see a widening supply-demand gap, with projections indicating a shortfall of 80,000 tons by 2027, supporting a bullish price outlook [10]. - Global visible copper inventories are at historical lows, enhancing price elasticity, while factors such as inflation expectations and capital allocation are likely to influence copper prices positively [10][11]. Strategic Implications - The copper industry is undergoing a structural transformation, with traditional demand slowing but new growth opportunities arising from the energy transition and technological advancements [11]. - Investors are advised to focus on companies with resource advantages, technological barriers, and green competitiveness, as copper's strategic value is expected to increase [11].