谁带崩了黄金？

Core Viewpoint - The recent correction in gold prices is attributed to both technical factors and the fading of short-term drivers, with gold transitioning from a safe-haven asset to a high-volatility asset. Despite a significant increase of over 60% in gold prices this year, the long-term bullish outlook remains intact, although short-term volatility is expected to be high [1][30]. Technical Analysis - Current technical indicators show that gold is "extremely overbought" in both short-term and long-term perspectives, with 100% percentile readings indicating significant price deviations from moving averages, historically leading to price corrections [3]. - Gold has reached 45 historical highs this year, with a rapid increase of approximately 30% in less than two months, marking a unique occurrence in recent bull market conditions. Historical observations suggest that such rapid increases typically lead to an average pullback of 4% within a month [7]. Market Drivers - The World Gold Council's Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) identifies six factors influencing gold returns, including economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, FX opportunity cost, interest rate opportunity cost, momentum and trend, and residuals. The contributions from residuals in August and September indicate a decreasing explanatory power for short-term price increases [5][8]. - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by increased liquidity and a hedge against the AI bubble, with significant inflows into gold ETFs in Europe and the U.S. prior to recent market adjustments. The market's anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has also contributed to gold's price movements [12][30]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term bullish case for gold is supported by the erosion of the U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency, driven by persistent fiscal deficits and declining geopolitical influence. The average annual federal deficit rate in the U.S. has been significantly higher than historical averages, leading to a continuous depreciation of the dollar against tangible assets like gold [28]. - As long as global stagflation and chaos persist, gold is expected to remain in a long-term upward trend, serving as a hedge against the long-term depreciation of dollar credit [30].