Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-23 04:06Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts ASMPT (00522) may report a loss in Q3 due to one-time restructuring expenses, but encourages investors to focus on its long-term growth drivers, including CoWoS-L capacity expansion, development of high-frequency memory in China, and progress in hybrid bonding [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - ASMPT's Q3 revenue guidance median is set at $475 million, representing an 11% year-on-year growth [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the company will incur approximately RMB 360 million in one-time restructuring expenses, leading to a net loss of about RMB 69 million [1] - For Q4, revenue is expected to reach RMB 3.646 billion, indicating a 7% year-on-year growth, with a projected net profit of approximately RMB 126 million, primarily driven by advanced packaging solutions [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The mainstream semiconductor demand is recovering, and the advanced packaging market continues to grow [1] - Morgan Stanley estimates that ASMPT's Q3 order shipment ratio will remain above 1x [1] - The target price for ASMPT has been raised from HKD 80 to HKD 100, with earnings per share forecasts for 2026 and 2027 increased by 10% and 23% respectively, while the full-year earnings estimate for this year has been reduced by 45% [1]