特朗普笑了，“冤大头”终于出现，预言一年后，稀土会多到用不完

Core Viewpoint - The recent $8.5 billion rare earth agreement between the US and Australia appears ambitious but overlooks a critical aspect: purification technology [1][3][4]. Group 1: Agreement Details - Australia will invest $3 billion to mine rare earths and plans to develop mineral resources worth $53 billion, with the US military establishing a gallium processing plant in Australia with an annual output of 100 tons [3]. - The agreement aims to target strategic sectors such as military and semiconductors, but the focus on mining neglects the essential purification technology [3][4]. Group 2: China's Dominance - China controls nearly 90% of global rare earth refining capacity, which is not merely a result of luck but a consequence of high technical barriers and extensive patent accumulation [4][6]. - The only company capable of large-scale production of rare earth extraction and separation centrifuges is based in China, highlighting the reliance of US companies on Chinese technology for deep processing [6][8]. Group 3: Challenges for the US and Australia - Establishing a factory capable of producing high-purity rare earth oxides will take at least three years and cost over 30% more than in China, with a total timeline of five to eight years from mining to finished products [6][8]. - The US military's inventory of samarium-cobalt magnets can only sustain production for six months, and new factories are still far from operational [8][10]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - Australia's agreement with the US may come at the cost of its economic ties with China, raising concerns about the viability of relying on US support for national security [12][14]. - The short-term impact of the US-Australia rare earth agreement is unlikely to disrupt China's position in the market, as China can adjust its strategic reserves in response to market fluctuations [14][16]. Group 5: Long-term Considerations - The rare earth competition is not about who has more mines but rather about who has a stronger industrial chain, which China has developed over three decades [18]. - The notion that the US and Australia can bypass technological barriers through financial investment is likely to lead to disappointment, as true technological accumulation requires time and effort [18].