特斯拉：全靠星辰大海，又到为信仰买单时刻

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q3 performance was decent, with total revenue exceeding market expectations, but the stock is priced for future growth, and guidance for key business areas is not optimistic [1][4]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was $28.1 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $27.2 billion, driven by increases in energy and service business revenues [1][11]. - Automotive revenue reached $21.2 billion, slightly above the expected $20.9 billion, primarily due to stable vehicle prices [1][12]. - Energy business revenue was $3.4 billion, up 22% quarter-over-quarter, supported by increased deployment of storage products [12]. Profitability Metrics - Core automotive gross margin (excluding carbon credits) improved from 15% in the previous quarter to 15.4% this quarter, aligning with market expectations [1][14]. - Overall automotive gross margin decreased from 17.2% to 17%, impacted by lower carbon credit contributions [14][35]. R&D and Capital Expenditure - R&D expenses were $1.63 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $1.54 billion, driven by increased investment in AI and related technologies [2][40]. - Capital expenditures for the quarter were $2.25 billion, with a full-year guidance of $9 billion, indicating continued investment in FSD and Robotaxi initiatives [2][42]. Sales and Delivery Outlook - Q3 deliveries were 497,000 vehicles, significantly higher than the expected 444,000, aided by preemptive purchases before the IRA subsidy reduction [39]. - Q4 delivery expectations are lower, with estimates between 420,000 to 440,000 vehicles, reflecting anticipated demand weakness due to subsidy changes [39][6]. Future Business Guidance - The Robotaxi and FSD business guidance remains in line with expectations, with plans for expansion in several states by year-end [7]. - The anticipated launch of the Optimus robot has been delayed, with production now expected to start in late 2026 [9]. Market Position and Pricing Strategy - Tesla has adjusted leasing prices for Model Y and Model 3, with increases in monthly rental rates [5]. - The introduction of lower-spec versions of Model 3 and Model Y indicates a shift in strategy, potentially replacing the previously planned Model 2.5 [6][39].