贝莱德：美股第三季业绩季开局强劲 AI与降息支撑增长 维持超配美股立场

Core Insights - The report by BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) highlights strong performance in the U.S. stock market for Q3, with expected revenue growth of nearly 11%, driven by economic resilience, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and AI investment trends [1][2] - Despite renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, BlackRock believes that "unchanging economic laws" will limit extreme policy actions, and supply chains cannot be restructured overnight [1] - The report maintains an overweight position on U.S. equities while emphasizing the need for selective industry investments and close monitoring of AI spending effectiveness and tariff impacts [1][2] Market Background - U.S. stocks experienced a brief decline due to regional bank credit concerns but quickly rebounded, with gold prices reaching new highs and U.S. Treasury yields hitting a six-month low [1] - Recent trade tensions included a proposal by the U.S. President to impose 100% tariffs on China, leading to significant single-day declines in U.S. stocks, but market sentiment stabilized following clearer meeting paths and easing auto tariff expectations [1] - Analysts have revised the 2025 S&P 500 overall earnings growth forecast from 9% to nearly 11%, reflecting an optimistic adjustment in analyst predictions [1] Growth Drivers - BlackRock identifies three main growth drivers: strong U.S. economic resilience with a projected GDP growth of 1.5%, policy easing allowing the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, and increased AI-related spending [2] - The earnings growth for the "seven tech giants" in Q3 is projected at 14%, while other S&P 500 companies are expected to see a growth of 7.8%, indicating a narrowing gap in growth [2] - Financial sector benefits from regulatory easing, with expected earnings growth of 16%, while regional bank stocks experienced only minor declines due to credit issues at two institutions [2] International Comparison - European corporate earnings are lagging, impacted by a strong euro and reduced tariff demand, with 2025 earnings growth expectations revised down from nearly 3% to 0.5% [2] - BlackRock does not foresee conditions for growth surprises or relative earnings improvements in Europe, thus maintaining a preference for U.S. equities [2] Summary - BlackRock is optimistic about the combined support of economic laws, resilient growth, low interest rates, and AI themes for U.S. stocks, but cautions on trade policies and the need for careful selection in AI investments [3]