鲍威尔看走眼了？前美联储“三把手”呼吁及时管理市场预期！

Core Viewpoint - Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley questions Powell's neutral interest rate assessment, warning that further rate cuts could lead to inflation if monetary policy does not effectively restrain economic growth [2] Group 1: Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - Dudley suggests that if the Fed cuts rates next week, it will be based on the assumption that current monetary policy is restrictive and suppressing economic growth, a view he believes carries risks [2] - Powell argues for a neutral monetary policy, citing recession risks in the labor market, which he believes offset inflation risks from rising import tariffs [2] - The Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model predicts a 3.8% growth rate for Q3, higher than the previous estimate of 3.0%, contradicting the notion of a restrictive monetary policy [2] Group 2: Financial Environment and Market Dynamics - The FOMC assesses the neutral interest rate (r*) based on actual interest rate effects, indicating that their median estimate of r* at 3.0% may be too low [3] - Financial conditions have significantly eased over the past year, with stock prices rising, bond yields falling, and a weaker dollar, suggesting the current financial environment is the most accommodative since April 2022 [3] - The surge in AI investments has led to a substantial increase in the market capitalization of the "seven tech giants," raising their share from about 1/5 at the end of 2022 to approximately 1/3 now [3] Group 3: Inflation Risks and Expectations - The likelihood of inflation exceeding the Fed's target for a fifth consecutive year is high, with the FOMC projecting inflation will not return to 2% until 2028 [4] - Consumer confidence surveys indicate rising long-term inflation expectations, suggesting that the Fed may need to signal that future rate cuts will not meet market expectations [4] - To better achieve its inflation and employment goals, the Fed must manage market expectations regarding the pace and extent of future rate cuts [4]