光伏“反内卷”的西南之战：32万吨产能推倒第一枚骨牌

Core Insights - The southwestern region of China is set to halt approximately 320,000 tons of polysilicon production, which accounts for nearly 10% of the country's total capacity, due to rising electricity prices during the dry season and recent policy meetings [1][2] - This shutdown is expected to trigger a chain reaction throughout the photovoltaic industry, marking a new phase of restructuring and potential recovery [1][2] Summary by Sections Polysilicon Production and Regional Impact - The southwestern region, rich in hydropower resources, has attracted numerous polysilicon manufacturers, creating a complete photovoltaic industry chain [1] - Seasonal fluctuations in hydropower supply have led to significant instability in energy availability, with electricity prices rising by 30%-50% during the dry season, directly impacting production costs [1][2] Economic and Employment Effects - The planned shutdown will have a substantial impact on local economies, as polysilicon companies are key providers of jobs and tax revenue [2] - The gradual approach to halting production aims to maintain operational continuity while addressing the challenging market conditions [2] Industry Overcapacity and Price Decline - The polysilicon industry is currently facing severe overcapacity, with domestic production capacity reaching 3.5 million tons against a projected global demand of only 1.5 million tons by 2026, resulting in a surplus exceeding 100% [3] - High inventory levels, estimated at 400,000 to 500,000 tons, are putting further pressure on market prices, which have dropped significantly from previous highs [3][4] Technological Advancements and Competitive Landscape - Rapid technological advancements are leading to the exit of high-cost production capacities, with leading companies achieving production costs below 40,000 yuan per ton, while outdated capacities exceed 60,000 yuan per ton [4] - The ongoing price war has severely impacted profitability, with many companies forecasting a decline in net profits of over 50% [4] Policy and Regulatory Changes - Recent government initiatives aim to address blind expansion and unhealthy competition in the photovoltaic sector, focusing on eliminating below-cost sales and phasing out outdated capacities [5][6] - New energy consumption standards are expected to reduce effective polysilicon capacity from 3.5 million tons to approximately 2.4 million tons, a decrease of about 31.4% [6] Industry Restructuring and Future Outlook - The industry is undergoing significant consolidation, with weaker companies seeking acquisition by stronger players, enhancing overall competitiveness [6][7] - The exit of high-cost capacities is anticipated to alleviate supply-demand imbalances and create market opportunities for leading firms like GCL-Poly and Tongwei [7]